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Federalism can prevent Iraq civil war

21 July 2005
The Washington Examiner - By David L. Phillips


Iraq's spiral of deadly sectarian violence has been between Arab Sunnis and Arab Shi'a. But if Iraq fragments, it will be along ethnic lines that pit Arabs against Kurds. The Kurds seek a secular republic with Kirkuk as the capitol of a federal Iraqi state called Kurdistan. If the constitution addresses their core demands, the Kurds might be flexible on other issues that threaten to break consensus during current negotiations on Iraq's permanent constitution.

Most Iraqis agree that the best way to balance the competing demands for democracy and unity is through a federal structure that assigns specific authorities to the national government while decentralizing control to regional and local governments.

As envisioned, powers would be reserved for federal Iraqi states unless they are specifically allocated to the national government. Federalism is a contract between equal groups; it is preferable to autonomy, which is bestowed by the national government to a lesser party and can be more easily revoked.

Although federal Iraqi states should be composed using geographic criteria, they should also take into account regional interests and cultural affinities. Saddam Hussein's policy of "ethnic correction" reapportioned territories within several northern provinces including Kirkuk. Consistent with Article 58 of the interim constitution, a system of property claims and compensation should be established so that displaced persons have the right to return to their homes before the Iraqi government conducts a census and organizes a popular referendum allowing them to determine their federal Iraqi state affiliations.

Other northerners - Arabs, Turkmen and Assyrians - are nervous about domination by Kurds in a federal Iraqi Kurdistan. Though federalism goes hand in hand with minority rights, the best way to guarantee their group rights is through a robust bill of individual rights enshrined in the Iraq Constitution. Given Iraq's history of ethno-religious conflict, the constitution should go even further by including explicit provisions protecting groups from discrimination, promoting equality and enabling them to preserve their unique identities.

The role of religion in Iraqi governance is another potential deal-breaker. The Kurds, who are staunchly secular and pro-Western, strongly resist efforts by clerics to apply Islamic law nationwide without restraint. Yet Islam is a powerful force shaping Iraqi society.
The circle can be squared by making Islam the official religion of Iraq and requiring that national legislation be consistent with Islamic law. The constitution should not, however, require the application of Islamic law to family matters such as marriage, divorce and inheritance. Consistent with the principle of decentralization, family law should be left to federal Iraqi states, which may enact any law they see fit, subject to the requirement that the law does not violate the rights of equal protection in the constitution. The Quran is subject to interpretation; conservative clerics must not push too hard.

If the constitution guarantees federalism and secularism, Kurdish leaders would be flexible on other contentious issues. For example, the Kurds may surrender exclusive control of the rich Kirkuk oil fields and allow the national government to control Iraq's national oil wealth, provided that revenues were distributed to federal Iraqi states based on their percentage of the total population.

Kurdish fighters - called peshmarga ("those who walk before death") - enjoy a revered position in Kurdish society for protecting Kurds from Saddam's genocidal campaigns and from the intrusion of Turkish troops. Though Kurdish leaders are likely to resist demobilizing and disarming the peshmarga, they might allow the whole units to be co-opted in the Iraqi national army, join federal Iraqi state civilian defense forces, perform local police functions or retire with a pension.

Compromise and consent will not be easy. If Iraqis fail to use negotiations of the permanent constitution as a tool of national reconciliation, violence could worsen and start to fragment. In this event, it would be in the United States national interest to withdraw its forces to Kurdistan, secure the Kirkuk oil fields, and protect the last bastion of democracy in Iraq. A moral dimension also exists: It would be wrong for the U.S. to sell out the Kurds as it did in 1974 and 1991.

David L. Phillips is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "Losing Iraq."

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